Omer Faruk Orsun

Visiting Assistant Professor at NYUAD

Democratization and Conflict


Journal article


Omer F. Orsun, Resat Bayer, Michael Bernhard
William Thompson, Oxford Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory, Oxford University Press, 2017


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APA   Click to copy
Orsun, O. F., Bayer, R., & Bernhard, M. (2017). Democratization and Conflict. Oxford Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.351


Chicago/Turabian   Click to copy
Orsun, Omer F., Resat Bayer, and Michael Bernhard. “Democratization and Conflict.” Edited by William Thompson. Oxford Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory (2017).


MLA   Click to copy
Orsun, Omer F., et al. “Democratization and Conflict.” Oxford Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory, edited by William Thompson, Oxford University Press, 2017, doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.351.


BibTeX   Click to copy

@article{orsun2017a,
  title = {Democratization and Conflict},
  year = {2017},
  publisher = {Oxford University Press},
  doi = {10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.351},
  author = {Orsun, Omer F. and Bayer, Resat and Bernhard, Michael},
  editor = {Thompson, William},
  booktitle = {Oxford Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory}
}

Is democratization good for peace? The question of whether democratization results in violence has led to a spirited and productive debate in empirical conflict studies over the past two decades. The debate, sparked by Mansfield and Snyder’s foundational work, raised a challenge to the notion of universal democratic peace and elicited numerous critical responses within the literature. One set of such responses has emphasized issues of replicability, mismatches between the research design and directionality of the proposed causal mechanism, the role of outliers, and model specification. In addition, two issues have not been discussed sufficiently in the existing literature. First, conceptually, is the issue of concept stretching, specifically the form Sartori labeled the “cat-dog” problem. While past criticisms were mainly about model specification, we debate whether Mansfield and Snyder’s findings can be seen as a product of concept misformation. Second, quantitatively, there are conceptual and empirical issues that Mansfield and Snyder use to capture state strength in their most recent attempts to provide ongoing evidence for their theory. The most optimistic estimates show that even when democratization has a statistically significant association with war onset at lower levels of institutional strength, the effect is substantively insignificant.